San Juan Island Real Estate Report, Summer 2009. Real estate activity on San Juan Island and throughout the county remained sluggish through the first half of the year. Sales of single family homes on San Juan slipped in '09 to 23 from 28 sales in the same period last year. Both average house price and median house price also declined significantly. Average price fell from $731,854 in the first half of '08 to $537,661 this year. Median price was off from $501,250 last year to $385,000 in the same period this year. These numbers are skewed to a degree by the fact that activity in the upper end of the market has been the hardest hit. In the first two quarters of last year there was one sale over $3.5 million and another at just under $3 million as well as two others over the $1 million dollar mark. This year there are five sales over $1 million but the highest is just $1.35 million. First half condominium sales slipped from three in '08 to one in '09 although vacant land sales were up slightly from 8 last year to 10 this year.
One bit of good news is that activity in the third quarter so far is well ahead of last year. Since July 1st there have been 21 residential sales on San Juan compared to just 13 in the same period of '08. That puts the total sales year to date slightly ahead of last year, 44 to 41. Total dollar volume is about $6 million dollars lower this year, again due to the lack of upper end activity.
Other parts of the county have been hit harder than San Juan. Orcas Island year to date sales are off by half with only 16 homes sold, down from 33 in '08. Activity on Lopez is off nearly two thirds, from 19 homes in '08 to just 7 so far this year. Vacant land activity has also been slower on both islands this year.
The number of foreclosures locally continues to increase as does the number of short sales (sales where a bank agrees to accept a sales price that is lower than the amount owed on a mortgage). In general the Pacific Northwest has lagged behind much of the country in experiencing the overall recession and we very likely will see foreclosures worsen for a while, even as they appear to be leveling off in California and other hard hit areas. Nationally existing homes sales have finally increased year over year for the first time in four years.
Though the economy continues to struggle, and unemployment is up, public sentiment is improving. Where a year ago the financial system was just starting to unravel, today it appears things have started to stabilize. Mortgage rates remain low although it is tougher to qualify for a loan, larger down payments are necessary and income verification is required for virtually all loans.
For buyers who can qualify and have an adequate down payment it is definitely a time of opportunity. Though the amount of activity and number of sales may be slow, many buyers are finding very good deals compared to several years ago. Price reductions are widespread and sellers have to be willing to negotiate with buyers on their price if they want their homes to sell. The average "days on market" here is now almost 300 and many overpriced homes have been for sale far longer than that.
Please feel free to contact me by cell phone or e-mail if you would like any additional information on our current market.
Michael Linehan, Windermere San Juan Island
michael@windermeresji.com 360-298-0914 www.michaellinehan.com
